Archive for the ‘Foreign Exchange’ Category

Forex Technical View

Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

 This is a post by CMA D.S.Kapoor.  he is at present in employment as GM-Finance with a Kanpur based listed company. he has been tracking the stock market for the last 20 years and the forex market for the last 3 years.

USD / INR

 

Weekly Chart

 

 

Last week, it was indicated that currency is getting support and is above 50 DMA (44.64) and 50MMA (44.80), as against the week’s closing at 44.82 and once, these supports get breached decisively, the targets may be around 44 – 43.85. It was also indicated that technical indicators are suggesting happening of such possibility within next fortnight. Resistances for next week were expected at 45.05 / 45.35 and Supports at 44.64 / 44.35 / 44.00.

 

Last week, it opened at 44.74, high / low at 44.8250 / 44.52, and closed at 44.72 as against earlier week’s closing at 44.82. Thus, during the week, though, 50MMA has been breached downside, but 50 DMA has still not been breached on closing basis on any day, though intraday, it has gone below 50 DMA. Further 5MMA is also slightly above 50MMA.   

 

Now, during the current week, we expect 5MMA to breach 50MMA on the lower side, which is a bearish signal. Once it happens, we expect lower targets – 44.40 or below. This view shall get negated, only if the Currency goes above 45.20 – 45.25.

 

Major Resistances : 44.87 / 45.06 / 45.20

Major Supports       : 44.45 / 44.10 / 43.85

 

 

EURO / USD

 

Weekly Chart

 

 

Last week, our preferred view was that the Cross should consolidate around current levels and then only, up move to start again. It was also indicated that positioning of different weekly moving averages indicate towards continuation of bullish trend, however, clear bullishness will be visible, only once 50WMA(1.3580) crosses 200WMA(1.40), which may take another 2 – 3 months time. Resistances for next week were expected at 1.4725 / 1.4890 and Supports at 1.4450 / 1.4375.

 

Last week, it opened at 1.4627, high / low at 1.4696 / 1.4320, and closed at 1.4345 as against earlier week’s closing at 1.4634. Thus, there has been consolidation during first three days followed by weakness in next two days.   

 

Now, next week, it is expected that, if 1.4320 is not breached on lower side, further consolidation in between 1.4350 – 1.4600 is expected before any fresh move starts. However, if it gets breached, next support level to be watched shall be around 1.4110.

 

Major Resistances : 1.4417 / 1.4476 / 1.4539   

Major Supports       : 1.4320 / 1.4260 / 1.4145

 

 

 

GBP / USD

 

Weekly Chart

 

Last week, it was indicated that the Cross shall not go below 50 DMA and bullish momentum should continue. In between, there is resistance around 1.6635 (200MMA). Once that is crossed decisively, further targets may be 1.6685 / 1.6840. Resistances for next week were expected at 1.6535 / 1.6685 / 1.6840 and Supports at 1.6335 / 1.6285.

 

Last week, it opened at 1.6425, high / low at 1.6470 / 1.6217, and closed at 1.6233 as against last week’s closing at 1.6427. Thus, on first four days, the bullish momentum was witnessed. However, there was profit booking on the 5th day of the week. Once again, the Cross has closed on Friday below 50 DMA (1.6365).

 

Now, next week, since 50 DMA is above 200 DMA and 5MMA, 13MMA & 21MMA are in phase, there are fair chances of bounce back or consolidation in the current range of 1.62 – 1.65.

 

Major Resistances : 1.6313 / 1.6360 / 1.6420

Major Supports       : 1.6195 / 1.6110 / 1.6060

 

SUMMARY

 

 

R1

R2

R3

CMP(10th June)

S1

S2

S3

USD / INR

44.87

45.06

45.20

  44.72

44.45

44.10

43.85

EURO/USD

1.4417

1.4476

1.4539

1.4345

1.4320

1.4260

1.4145

GBP / USD

1.6313

1.6360

1.6420

1.6233

1.6195

1.6110

1.6060